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Current Events

Harvey’s Impact on the U.S. Economy

Friday, September 1st, 2017

By now, you have watched with sympathy and concern as hurricane Harvey flooded Houston. You may remember seeing similar footage when Hurricane Katrina roared through New Orleans, and when superstorm Sandy roared through the most populous areas of New Jersey and New York. As you see Houston sitting in six feet of water, you’re probably wondering what the economic impact will be of all this devastation, and how it compares to natural mega-disasters like Katrina and Sandy.

While we don’t yet know the true cost of Harvey, and probably won’t for months, experts believe two things:

1) The financial toll of Harvey will break all previous records, with estimates ranging from $80 billion (Enki Research) to $160 billion (AccuWeather).

2) In the end, the storm will actually have minimal impact on the overall economy’s growth.

You can see in the accompanying graph that either estimate would make Harvey the costliest hurricane in U.S. history. But where will the impact be felt?

First, at the pump. The American Automobile Association reports that the average cost of a gallon of regular unleaded gas increased from $2.34 to $2.40 in a matter of days, due to shutdowns that have slowed the flow of gas from the epicenter of Texas’ oil refinery industry. (The Houston area processes nearly one-third of America’s crude oil.) Interestingly, crude oil prices are falling due to lessened demand; because refinery companies are no longer buying oil on the spot markets while they rebuild and retool.

The Houston area also has a lot of facilities that use petroleum to manufacture a variety of chemicals for export—roughly 21% of the U.S. total. Disruptions to chemicals-related exports could reduce GDP in the fourth quarter by as much as 0.20%.

We can also expect a brief spike in initial jobless claims—the weekly tally of people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time. Economists note that there was a spike in initial claims in Louisiana after Hurricane Katrina, and in the Northeast after Hurricane Sandy. If the past is any indication, this will be a temporary phenomenon (see the jobless rate graph), because the cleanup in the aftermath, including a lot of repair and construction, will require a lot of temporary labor, reducing the local unemployment rate, for a few months, to near zero.

Meanwhile, up to half a million flooded cars and trucks could be scrapped, according to an estimate by Cox Automotive. Auto insurers like State Farm, Allstate, Progressive and Geico will deal with claims for several months.

Harvey taketh away, but it will also give back: the impact of devastation on the overall economy will be somewhat offset by the huge rebuilding effort’s impact on overall GDP. However, the final tally, as mentioned, won’t be measurable until the rebuilding has been mostly completed—which won’t be anytime soon.

Source:  http://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-harvey-economic-impact-2017-8/#housing-6

Who’s On Your Side?

Friday, June 16th, 2017

Friday, June 9 quietly marked a historic day in the financial services world. Last Friday, the Department of Labor’s fiduciary rule came in to effect requiring all financial advisors to forego any sales agenda and give advice that would benefit their clients or customers or, if they decide otherwise, they must explain how and why they intend to give advice that instead primarily benefits themselves and their brokerage company. This rule only pertains to rollovers from a qualified plan like a 401(k) into an IRA, and to the investment recommendations for that IRA account. But it may be a first step toward something larger.

The polls consistently show that most Americans believe they already receive objective advice—called “fiduciary” advice by the profession and regulators. But the overwhelming odds are that they don’t. There are half a million brokers who earn commissions if they can convince you to buy an expensive alternative to the thriftier, better-performing investment options on the market.  That’s more than ten times the number of advisors who adhere to a fiduciary standard. Government research estimates that consumers lost $17 billion a year to conflicted advice in the recommendations made by brokers and sales agents posing as advisors related to retirement plans. This, to put it bluntly, helps explain why so many Wall Street brokers are insulted if their annual bonus is in the low seven figures.

An article in Bloomberg recently outlined some of the ways that you can be taken in by a sales pitch and never know it.  (The full article can be found here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-06-07/fiduciary-rule-fight-brews-while-bad-financial-advisers-multiply).  It notes that the brokerage industry—that is, the larger Wall Street firms, independent broker-dealer organizations and life insurance organizations—repeatedly fought the fiduciary rule in court, arguing, in some cases, that their brokers and insurance agents shouldn’t be held to this standard because, despite what they said or what the companies’ marketing materials proclaimed, they were nothing more than salespeople trying to effect a sale.  The courts refused to block the rule.

We don’t know how long this regulation will be in effect.  New Labor Secretary Alexander Acosta has announced that he’s studying whether the rule that requires brokers to act in the best interests of their customers is good or bad for customers, and his comments hint that he thinks you would be harmed if suddenly you were able to trust the advice you receive.  But there is one simple way to determine whether you’re working with somebody you can trust.

First, ask your advisor directly to provide written documentation that he or she will act in your best interests.  This should be no longer than a page and might be no longer than a sentence or two.  There’s even a “Fiduciary Oath” that many financial advisors are giving to their clients—without any prompting.  If the broker hems and haws, chances are any recommendations you receive are going to cost you money that will be disclosed in the fine print of whatever agreement you sign.

We, at Kendall Capital, believe the DOL Fiduciary Rule is a positive step in the right direction for the financial services industry. We have been fiduciary since our inception in 2005 and firmly believe that all investment advisors should adhere to the fiduciary standard in order to provide the investor with the best financial outlook free from outside influences. If you are interested in finding out more about the fiduciary services we offer, please give us a call today.

Take a Deep Breath and Stay Invested

Thursday, June 8th, 2017

The current political climate and global incidents have disturbed what was an unusually calm stock market. The political uproar in Washington may continue for weeks or months, and it could mean significant, ongoing turbulence for Wall Street. As an investor, how much will this turmoil matter to you in the long run? Perhaps, very little, and there are many good reasons to remain in the market.       

The earnings recession has ended, and the economy has strengthened. This past earnings season was a superb one. The first quarter of 2017 saw the biggest annualized leap in corporate profits in five years – nearly 15%, according to S&P Capital IQ. We may also be at or near full employment – both the headline jobless rate and the U-6 rate measuring underemployment are back to where they were before the Great Recession began. Inflation has, at last, picked up, and the manufacturing and service sectors have been growing.       

The market is still having a good year. At this writing, the S&P 500 is up more than 5% year-to-date; the Nasdaq Composite, about 12% year-to-date. Given the economic trends mentioned in the above paragraph – and the possibility of more dovishness from the Fed – these indices could certainly see further 2017 gains.       

Remember that many investors come to regret emotional decisions. Emotions drove many people away from equities in the 2007-09 bear market, and they paid a price; after sinking to a bottom on March 9, 2009, the S&P 500 appreciated 100% in just four years. Some of those who sat on the sidelines as the bull market started ended up buying high after selling low.

Another dramatic example: the S&P rose 15.2% in a month (in terms of total return) after hitting a low on October 9, 2002. So, just as the market can drop quickly, it can also recover quickly.              

Breaking news should not dissuade you from pursuing your long-term objectives. Your retirement savings effort is not momentary, but lifelong. The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 have climbed higher through all kinds of disruptions in their long history. The S&P has advanced in 72% of the years it has been in existence. Look at the big picture of market performance over time. Understand that pronounced, daily volatility is a disruption of the market norm, not the norm itself.

A New Tax Break for Montgomery County Seniors and Military Retirees

Friday, April 28th, 2017

Are you a Montgomery County resident age 65 or older or a military retiree age 65 or older? If so, you may be eligible for a 20% tax credit on your Montgomery County property taxes if you meet certain criteria.

On March 7, 2017, the Montgomery County Council passed the Property Tax Credit for Elderly Individuals and for Military Retirees (Bill 42-16). As long as one owner of the home meets the criteria listed below, you are eligible to receive the 20% tax credit. The eligibility criteria to receive this property tax credit includes:
• You must be age 65 or older;
• have owned or lived in your dwelling (property including the home and land) for at least forty consecutive years and are on the property deed, or you are a retired member of the United States armed forces and are on the property deed.
• The assessed value of the dwelling must be $650,000 or less at the time you apply for the credit if you are not a retired member of the armed services.
• For those who are 65 or older and a retired member of the armed services, the assessed value of your home must be $500,000 or less when you apply for the credit.

To apply for the credit, you must fill out and mail a completed application to the Montgomery County Department of Finance, Division of Treasury by September 1, 2017 for tax year 2017. The September deadline only applies for tax year 2017. Every tax year thereafter, the deadline for applications is April 1st. You must complete an application for each year you wish to receive the tax credit, and it is only available for five consecutive years.

For additional information about this property tax credit and to download the application visit https://www.montgomerycountymd.gov/Finance/bill-42-16.html.

Implied Forward Interest Rate

Monday, April 10th, 2017

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Please be aware that you are leaving www.kendallcapital.com and will be redirected to a third party website. Kendall Capital has no control over information at any third party site accessed from www.kendallcapital.com. Kendall Capital makes no representation and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any linked site. The inclusion of any link does not imply endorsement, investigation, verification or monitoring by Kendall Capital. In no event shall Kendall Capital be responsible for your use of a third party site. Thank you for visiting Kendall Capital's website.

Please be aware that you are leaving www.kendallcapital.com and will be redirected to a third party website. Kendall Capital has no control over information at any third party site accessed from www.kendallcapital.com. Kendall Capital makes no representation and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any linked site. The inclusion of any link does not imply endorsement, investigation, verification or monitoring by Kendall Capital. In no event shall Kendall Capital be responsible for your use of a third party site. Thank you for visiting Kendall Capital's website.

Please be aware that you are leaving www.kendallcapital.com and will be redirected to a third party website. Kendall Capital has no control over information at any third party site accessed from www.kendallcapital.com. Kendall Capital makes no representation and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any linked site. The inclusion of any link does not imply endorsement, investigation, verification or monitoring by Kendall Capital. In no event shall Kendall Capital be responsible for your use of a third party site. Thank you for visiting Kendall Capital's website.

Please be aware that you are leaving www.kendallcapital.com and will be redirected to a third party website. Kendall Capital has no control over information at any third party site accessed from www.kendallcapital.com. Kendall Capital makes no representation and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any linked site. The inclusion of any link does not imply endorsement, investigation, verification or monitoring by Kendall Capital. In no event shall Kendall Capital be responsible for your use of a third party site. Thank you for visiting Kendall Capital's website.

Please be aware that you are leaving www.kendallcapital.com and will be redirected to a third party website. Kendall Capital has no control over information at any third party site accessed from www.kendallcapital.com. Kendall Capital makes no representation and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any linked site. The inclusion of any link does not imply endorsement, investigation, verification or monitoring by Kendall Capital. In no event shall Kendall Capital be responsible for your use of a third party site. Thank you for visiting Kendall Capital's website.

Please be aware that you are leaving www.kendallcapital.com and will be redirected to a third party website. Kendall Capital has no control over information at any third party site accessed from www.kendallcapital.com. Kendall Capital makes no representation and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any linked site. The inclusion of any link does not imply endorsement, investigation, verification or monitoring by Kendall Capital. In no event shall Kendall Capital be responsible for your use of a third party site. Thank you for visiting Kendall Capital's website.

Please be aware that you are leaving www.kendallcapital.com and will be redirected to a third party website. Kendall Capital has no control over information at any third party site accessed from www.kendallcapital.com. Kendall Capital makes no representation and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any linked site. The inclusion of any link does not imply endorsement, investigation, verification or monitoring by Kendall Capital. In no event shall Kendall Capital be responsible for your use of a third party site. Thank you for visiting Kendall Capital's website.

Please be aware that you are leaving www.kendallcapital.com and will be redirected to a third party website. Kendall Capital has no control over information at any third party site accessed from www.kendallcapital.com. Kendall Capital makes no representation and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any linked site. The inclusion of any link does not imply endorsement, investigation, verification or monitoring by Kendall Capital. In no event shall Kendall Capital be responsible for your use of a third party site. Thank you for visiting Kendall Capital's website.

Please be aware that you are leaving www.kendallcapital.com and will be redirected to a third party website. Kendall Capital has no control over information at any third party site accessed from www.kendallcapital.com. Kendall Capital makes no representation and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any linked site. The inclusion of any link does not imply endorsement, investigation, verification or monitoring by Kendall Capital. In no event shall Kendall Capital be responsible for your use of a third party site. Thank you for visiting Kendall Capital's website.

Please be aware that you are leaving www.kendallcapital.com and will be redirected to a third party website. Kendall Capital has no control over information at any third party site accessed from www.kendallcapital.com. Kendall Capital makes no representation and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any linked site. The inclusion of any link does not imply endorsement, investigation, verification or monitoring by Kendall Capital. In no event shall Kendall Capital be responsible for your use of a third party site. Thank you for visiting Kendall Capital's website.

Please be aware that you are leaving www.kendallcapital.com and will be redirected to a third party website. Kendall Capital has no control over information at any third party site accessed from www.kendallcapital.com. Kendall Capital makes no representation and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any linked site. The inclusion of any link does not imply endorsement, investigation, verification or monitoring by Kendall Capital. In no event shall Kendall Capital be responsible for your use of a third party site. Thank you for visiting Kendall Capital's website.

Please be aware that you are leaving www.kendallcapital.com and will be redirected to a third party website. Kendall Capital has no control over information at any third party site accessed from www.kendallcapital.com. Kendall Capital makes no representation and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any linked site. The inclusion of any link does not imply endorsement, investigation, verification or monitoring by Kendall Capital. In no event shall Kendall Capital be responsible for your use of a third party site. Thank you for visiting Kendall Capital's website.

Please be aware that you are leaving www.kendallcapital.com and will be redirected to a third party website. Kendall Capital has no control over information at any third party site accessed from www.kendallcapital.com. Kendall Capital makes no representation and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any linked site. The inclusion of any link does not imply endorsement, investigation, verification or monitoring by Kendall Capital. In no event shall Kendall Capital be responsible for your use of a third party site. Thank you for visiting Kendall Capital's website.

Please be aware that you are leaving www.kendallcapital.com and will be redirected to a third party website. Kendall Capital has no control over information at any third party site accessed from www.kendallcapital.com. Kendall Capital makes no representation and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any linked site. The inclusion of any link does not imply endorsement, investigation, verification or monitoring by Kendall Capital. In no event shall Kendall Capital be responsible for your use of a third party site. Thank you for visiting Kendall Capital's website.

Please be aware that you are leaving www.kendallcapital.com and will be redirected to a third party website. Kendall Capital has no control over information at any third party site accessed from www.kendallcapital.com. Kendall Capital makes no representation and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any linked site. The inclusion of any link does not imply endorsement, investigation, verification or monitoring by Kendall Capital. In no event shall Kendall Capital be responsible for your use of a third party site. Thank you for visiting Kendall Capital's website.

Please be aware that you are leaving www.kendallcapital.com and will be redirected to a third party website. Kendall Capital has no control over information at any third party site accessed from www.kendallcapital.com. Kendall Capital makes no representation and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any linked site. The inclusion of any link does not imply endorsement, investigation, verification or monitoring by Kendall Capital. In no event shall Kendall Capital be responsible for your use of a third party site. Thank you for visiting Kendall Capital's website.

Please be aware that you are leaving www.kendallcapital.com and will be redirected to a third party website. Kendall Capital has no control over information at any third party site accessed from www.kendallcapital.com. Kendall Capital makes no representation and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any linked site. The inclusion of any link does not imply endorsement, investigation, verification or monitoring by Kendall Capital. In no event shall Kendall Capital be responsible for your use of a third party site. Thank you for visiting Kendall Capital's website.

Please be aware that you are leaving www.kendallcapital.com and will be redirected to a third party website. Kendall Capital has no control over information at any third party site accessed from www.kendallcapital.com. Kendall Capital makes no representation and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any linked site. The inclusion of any link does not imply endorsement, investigation, verification or monitoring by Kendall Capital. In no event shall Kendall Capital be responsible for your use of a third party site. Thank you for visiting Kendall Capital's website.

Please be aware that you are leaving www.kendallcapital.com and will be redirected to a third party website. Kendall Capital has no control over information at any third party site accessed from www.kendallcapital.com. Kendall Capital makes no representation and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any linked site. The inclusion of any link does not imply endorsement, investigation, verification or monitoring by Kendall Capital. In no event shall Kendall Capital be responsible for your use of a third party site. Thank you for visiting Kendall Capital's website.

Please be aware that you are leaving www.kendallcapital.com and will be redirected to a third party website. Kendall Capital has no control over information at any third party site accessed from www.kendallcapital.com. Kendall Capital makes no representation and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any linked site. The inclusion of any link does not imply endorsement, investigation, verification or monitoring by Kendall Capital. In no event shall Kendall Capital be responsible for your use of a third party site. Thank you for visiting Kendall Capital's website.

Please be aware that you are leaving www.kendallcapital.com and will be redirected to a third party website. Kendall Capital has no control over information at any third party site accessed from www.kendallcapital.com. Kendall Capital makes no representation and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any linked site. The inclusion of any link does not imply endorsement, investigation, verification or monitoring by Kendall Capital. In no event shall Kendall Capital be responsible for your use of a third party site. Thank you for visiting Kendall Capital's website.

Please be aware that you are leaving www.kendallcapital.com and will be redirected to a third party website. Kendall Capital has no control over information at any third party site accessed from www.kendallcapital.com. Kendall Capital makes no representation and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any linked site. The inclusion of any link does not imply endorsement, investigation, verification or monitoring by Kendall Capital. In no event shall Kendall Capital be responsible for your use of a third party site. Thank you for visiting Kendall Capital's website.

Please be aware that you are leaving www.kendallcapital.com and will be redirected to a third party website. Kendall Capital has no control over information at any third party site accessed from www.kendallcapital.com. Kendall Capital makes no representation and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any linked site. The inclusion of any link does not imply endorsement, investigation, verification or monitoring by Kendall Capital. In no event shall Kendall Capital be responsible for your use of a third party site. Thank you for visiting Kendall Capital's website.

Please be aware that you are leaving www.kendallcapital.com and will be redirected to a third party website. Kendall Capital has no control over information at any third party site accessed from www.kendallcapital.com. Kendall Capital makes no representation and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any linked site. The inclusion of any link does not imply endorsement, investigation, verification or monitoring by Kendall Capital. In no event shall Kendall Capital be responsible for your use of a third party site. Thank you for visiting Kendall Capital's website.

Please be aware that you are leaving www.kendallcapital.com and will be redirected to a third party website. Kendall Capital has no control over information at any third party site accessed from www.kendallcapital.com. Kendall Capital makes no representation and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any linked site. The inclusion of any link does not imply endorsement, investigation, verification or monitoring by Kendall Capital. In no event shall Kendall Capital be responsible for your use of a third party site. Thank you for visiting Kendall Capital's website.

Please be aware that you are leaving www.kendallcapital.com and will be redirected to a third party website. Kendall Capital has no control over information at any third party site accessed from www.kendallcapital.com. Kendall Capital makes no representation and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any linked site. The inclusion of any link does not imply endorsement, investigation, verification or monitoring by Kendall Capital. In no event shall Kendall Capital be responsible for your use of a third party site. Thank you for visiting Kendall Capital's website.

Please be aware that you are leaving www.kendallcapital.com and will be redirected to a third party website. Kendall Capital has no control over information at any third party site accessed from www.kendallcapital.com. Kendall Capital makes no representation and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any linked site. The inclusion of any link does not imply endorsement, investigation, verification or monitoring by Kendall Capital. In no event shall Kendall Capital be responsible for your use of a third party site. Thank you for visiting Kendall Capital's website.

Please be aware that you are leaving www.kendallcapital.com and will be redirected to a third party website. Kendall Capital has no control over information at any third party site accessed from www.kendallcapital.com. Kendall Capital makes no representation and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any linked site. The inclusion of any link does not imply endorsement, investigation, verification or monitoring by Kendall Capital. In no event shall Kendall Capital be responsible for your use of a third party site. Thank you for visiting Kendall Capital's website.

Please be aware that you are leaving www.kendallcapital.com and will be redirected to a third party website. Kendall Capital has no control over information at any third party site accessed from www.kendallcapital.com. Kendall Capital makes no representation and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any linked site. The inclusion of any link does not imply endorsement, investigation, verification or monitoring by Kendall Capital. In no event shall Kendall Capital be responsible for your use of a third party site. Thank you for visiting Kendall Capital's website.

Please be aware that you are leaving www.kendallcapital.com and will be redirected to a third party website. Kendall Capital has no control over information at any third party site accessed from www.kendallcapital.com. Kendall Capital makes no representation and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any linked site. The inclusion of any link does not imply endorsement, investigation, verification or monitoring by Kendall Capital. In no event shall Kendall Capital be responsible for your use of a third party site. Thank you for visiting Kendall Capital's website.

Please be aware that you are leaving www.kendallcapital.com and will be redirected to a third party website. Kendall Capital has no control over information at any third party site accessed from www.kendallcapital.com. Kendall Capital makes no representation and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any linked site. The inclusion of any link does not imply endorsement, investigation, verification or monitoring by Kendall Capital. In no event shall Kendall Capital be responsible for your use of a third party site. Thank you for visiting Kendall Capital's website.

Please be aware that you are leaving www.kendallcapital.com and will be redirected to a third party website. Kendall Capital has no control over information at any third party site accessed from www.kendallcapital.com. Kendall Capital makes no representation and is not responsible for the quality, content, nature, or reliability of any linked site. The inclusion of any link does not imply endorsement, investigation, verification or monitoring by Kendall Capital. In no event shall Kendall Capital be responsible for your use of a third party site. Thank you for visiting Kendall Capital's website.